In a significant development, the cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ has emerged over the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea, posing potential threats to India’s monsoon progress.
The Indian Meteorological Department has reported that the cyclone is anticipated to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours, and subsequently evolve into a very severe cyclonic storm within the following 24 hours.
Currently positioned approximately 900 km west-southwest of Goa, 1020 km southwest of Mumbai, 1090 km south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1380 km south of Karachi, the cyclonic storm has remained nearly stationary for nearly three hours.
As the monsoon onset in Kerala has already experienced delays, the arrival of the cyclonic storm is expected to have a critical impact on the progress of monsoon towards the Kerala coast.
The Indian Meteorological Department has yet to provide a tentative date for the monsoon’s arrival, while Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency, suggests a potential “meek and mild entry” on June 8 or June 9.
The presence of powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea, such as this cyclonic storm, hinders the monsoon’s inland advancement. While the monsoon stream may reach coastal areas, it is likely to face difficulties in penetrating beyond the Western Ghats, according to Skymet Weather.
The southwest monsoon traditionally commences over Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of approximately seven days. Initially, the IMD predicted the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala by June 4.
However, the formation of a low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea further delayed its onset. It is crucial to note that this delay does not necessarily imply a late arrival of the monsoon in other parts of the country, nor does it impact the total rainfall expected during the season.
Furthermore, the cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ brings a wind warning for the upcoming five days. Gale wind speeds ranging from 70-80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, are currently prevailing over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjacent regions of west-central and southeast Arabian Sea.
These speeds are anticipated to escalate to 105-115 kmph, gusting up to 125 kmph from the evening of June 7.
On June 8, squally wind speeds of 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, are expected along and off the Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts. Similar wind speeds are likely to persist along these coastal areas for the subsequent four days.
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